Samsung: Memory Shortage Gets Worse in 2027 and Lasts Through 2028

The memory shortage everyone called a passing squeeze is now a multi-year fact. Samsung, which makes about a third of the world's memory chips, told investors the crunch will get worse in 2027 and hold tight through 2028. That's not a blip you wait out. That's a planning horizon. Let me catch you up.

The deep cut

• AI labs booked the supply your hardware needs. Samsung says frontier labs are sharing long-term forecasts to lock in memory first.
• Stockpile inventory when supply gets thin. Apple doubled its inventory to $11.1 billion, breaking Tim Cook's lean playbook.
• A hot product still stocks out. The MacBook Air, the world's best-selling laptop, is backordered a month.

Where the chips went

The shortage has a cause, and it's not you. AI data centers are eating the world's memory. Samsung told investors that frontier AI labs are "sharing their medium- to long-term demand forecasts" directly with the company to lock in future supply. That lets Samsung favor whoever signs long, multi-year contracts.

So memory makers are shifting production toward data centers and away from consumer devices. Nvidia is expected to raise consumer graphics card prices 20% to 30%. If your product touches RAM or storage, and most hardware does, you are now bidding against companies with deeper pockets and longer contracts than you.

The price you pass along

Apple raised prices on Macs and iPads in June. Tim Cook called the memory situation "a hundred-year flood" on pricing. The budget MacBook Neo went from $599 to $699. Analysts think the iPhone 18 could cost up to $200 more this fall.

Apple did not absorb these costs. It moved them to buyers. And even Apple, which had its "strongest June quarter ever" with Mac sales up 29%, guided next quarter's growth down to 9% to 11%, from a recent 16%. The stock dropped 6% after hours. Higher prices bought the margin but slowed the momentum.

When the bestseller runs out

Price is one problem. Availability is the sharper one. The MacBook Air, what Apple calls "the world's most popular laptop," is now backordered into September. The more RAM you want, the longer you wait.

Apple is pushing the $1,999 MacBook Pro in its back-to-school ads instead of the Air, with a "MacBook Air subject to availability" disclaimer on the marketing. A company that spent a decade running lean now sits on $11.1 billion in inventory, nearly double last year. When the tightest supply chain in tech starts hoarding and steering demand off its own hero product, that tells you where this is headed.

The rescue you can't count on

Apple beat estimates this quarter, but a chunk of that was a $2.19 billion tariff refund after the Supreme Court struck down Trump's tariffs. Strip out that one-time windfall and Apple missed. Do not model your own margins around a lucky break.

The workarounds are slow. Apple is sourcing memory from Chinese suppliers and lobbying the government to buy from a blacklisted chipmaker. Those are the moves of a company scrambling, in Cook's word. If Apple's leverage buys only partial relief, your smaller order will buy less.

Three questions for your team

• If memory prices stay high through 2028, do we raise prices, cut specs, or eat the margin? Pick before the next planning cycle, not during it.
• Which of our SKUs depends on the memory tiers that are hardest to get, and do we have a second supplier lined up now?
• Are we treating a one-time gain, like a refund or a good quarter, as a reason to hold prices? Name what's real recurring margin and what isn't.